![]() ![]() ![]() Nassim Taleb has had an incredible career with great success in trading in the stock market and currencies. In his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, he puts forth many ideas about black swan events. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks as examples of Black Swan Events. The black swan theory is a set of ideas made popular by a man named Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The theory was introduced in Taleb's 2007 book, The Black Swan. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology.The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight. According to the black swan theory, a black swan is an event that is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. ![]()
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